Sunday, June 22, 2008

When You're Not Playing Very Well . . .

. . . maybe what you need is a good fifteen-game swing through the National League.

The Tigers have gone 7-2 against the NL and now have the Twins in their sights. (Twins are are 1.5 games back of the White Sox; Tigers are 5 games back.)

There's still six more (!) games to go against the NL: Three against St. Louis and three against Colorado, all in Detroit.

Who knows whether the Tigers can keep the same level of play against AL teams. Maybe their current play is like beating up on the practice team and then getting clobbered in the real game.

UPDATE: The Tigers just polished off the Rockies to make their record on this interleague swing 12-3. Next up: A three game sweep of the Twins.


mkr mouse said...

have to love the NL :D

Actually, I am fairly sure that the NL is around for the Cubs, and to "show mercy on the captives" of third place in hard AL divisons...

Thorgersen said...

Also, the Twins are ridiculously good (and not just this year, but especially this year) against NL clubs. I think they have won 7 straight so far (outcome of Glen Perkins vs Greg Maddux still pending, but ahead 5-3 right now).

Anyway, in the standard reality check stat, Runs Scored versus Runs Against, the Tigers and Twins *should be* about equal. The Twins have exactly a 0 difference between the two, the Tigers a -6. So, the Twins are overperforming/lucky at 2.5 games over .500, and the Tigers should expect to get a little better record simply by regressing to the mean. On the other hand, as far as catching the Sox, you are right that destiny lies in neither teams's hands at this point -- Chicago is at +76 right now (Compare the Red Sox at +70 but with a much better record). In other words, Chicago has already actually been *underperforming* what one would expect based on that simple formula. On the other hand, which of the three clubs will continue to score runs as they have, and which will change from here on out? I would guess Tigers will increase their runs scored, while Chicago will drop off a bit making perhaps an interesting race. The Twins, I am sorry to say, I think are performing about how they will perform for the year, so, as I said at the beginning of the year, I'll be happy with a .500 finish.